导弹飞行时安全系统保险失效时间的分布模型

根据安全系统在导弹飞行过程中受外界环境信息的冲击而解除保险这一物理过程,推断了安全系统的保险失效时间服从截尾Ｇａｍ ｍ ａ 分布模型,并讨论了在保险失效建模和评估等统计过程中非常有用的截尾Ｇａｍ ｍ ａ 分布的一些特性。     

基于微裂纹模型的材料可靠性预计

讨论了微裂纹的某些不同于大型裂纹的增长特性,提出了一种微裂纹在某种材料上的多级扩展模型,利用微裂纹的增长数据来预计材料的可靠性。     

浅析炮车比

本文以坦克发射时车体的角振幅和乘员所受加速度不超过一定值为基础,推导了炮车比极限值的理论公式;并对影响炮车比极值的因素进行了分析,最后,以59式坦克为例得出炮车比不超过1.71,该结论具有普遍意义.     

平显PDU光学系统下组合玻璃镀负滤光膜对字符、背景亮度的影响

本文依据计算光束亮度的理论,分析论证了平显PDU 光学系统下组合玻璃镀负滤光膜后,对字符、背景亮度产生的影响,并以大量的计算数据,得出了平显PDU 在采用双组合玻璃的条件下,下组合玻璃能否采用负滤光膜的结论。     

关于潜艇装备劳兰C导航仪技术问题的研究

本文提出了一种改善潜艇现有天线接收性能的方法,从而解决了在潜艇上安装使用劳兰C导航仪的关键技术问题。     

Dynamic coordination of production planning and sales admission control in the presence of a spot market

We consider the decision‐making problem of dynamically scheduling the production of a single make‐to stock (MTS) product in connection with the product's concurrent sales in a spot market and a long‐term supply channel. The spot market is run by a business to business (B2B) online exchange, whereas the long‐term channel is established by a structured contract. The product's price in the spot market is exogenous, evolves as a continuous time Markov chain, and affects demand, which arrives sequentially as a Markov‐modulated Poisson process (MMPP). The manufacturer is obliged to fulfill demand in the long‐term channel, but is able to rein in sales in the spot market. This is a significant strategic decision for a manufacturer in entering a favorable contract. The profitability of the contract must be evaluated by optimal performance. The current problem, therefore, arises as a prerequisite to exploring contracting strategies. We reveal that the optimal strategy of coordinating production and sales is structured by the spot price dependent on the base stock and sell‐down thresholds. Moreover, we can exploit the structural properties of the optimal strategy to conceive an efficient algorithm. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

Bayesian enhanced decision making for deteriorating repairable systems with preventive maintenance

Since a system and its components usually deteriorate with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to restore or keep the function of a system in a good state. Furthermore, PM is capable of improving the health condition of the system and thus prolongs its effective age. There has been a vast amount of research to find optimal PM policies for deteriorating repairable systems. However, such decisions involve numerous uncertainties and the analyses are typically difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. In this article, a Bayesian decision model is developed to determine the optimal number of PM actions for systems which are maintained according to a periodic PM policy. A non‐homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deteriorating behavior of the repairable system. It is assumed that the status of the system after a PM is somewhere between as good as new for a perfect repair and as good as old for a minimal repair, and for failures between two preventive maintenances, the system undergoes minimal repairs. Finally, a numerical example is given and the results of the proposed approach are discussed after performing sensitivity analysis. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

横向扰动对超声速混合层被动标量混合影响分析

采用大涡模拟数值计算二维空间发展的超声速混合层,重点分析横向扰动对混合层的标量结构、标量厚度以及标量体积卷吸率的影响。采用理论模型验证了数值方法在计算标量混合特性方面的准确性。结果表明,横向扰动频率和振幅明显影响着混合层的标量增长率和卷吸率。高频扰动增大了混合层近场标量增长率和卷吸率,但是低频扰动改善了混合层远场标量增长率。大尺度涡卷吸过程对混合层标量卷吸率起决定作用。多频扰动有效地增强了超声速混合层的标量混合。     

Capacity investment decisions under risk aversion

This article studies the optimal capacity investment problem for a risk‐averse decision maker. The capacity can be either purchased or salvaged, whereas both involve a fixed cost and a proportional cost/revenue. We incorporate risk preference and use a consumption model to capture the decision maker's risk sensitivity in a multiperiod capacity investment model. We show that, in each period, capacity and consumption decisions can be separately determined. In addition, we characterize the structure of the optimal capacity strategy. When the parameters are stationary, we present certain conditions under which the optimal capacity strategy could be easily characterized by a static two‐sided (s, S) policy, whereby, the capacity is determined only at the beginning of period one, and held constant during the entire planning horizon. It is purchased up to B when the initial capacity is below b, salvaged down to Σ when it is above σ, and remains constant otherwise. Numerical tests are presented to investigate the impact of demand volatility on the optimal capacity strategy. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 218–235, 2016     

Reforming China’s defense industry

ABSTRACT

Even with sizable economic inputs, access to foreign technologies, and considerable political will, China, up until the late 1990s, experienced only limited success when it came to the local design, development, and manufacture of advanced conventional weapons. Not surprisingly, therefore, reforming the local defense industry in order to upgrade its technology base and manufacturing capabilities and to make armaments production more efficient and cost-effective has long preoccupied the Chinese leadership. The fact that most of these efforts had little positive impact on the country’s military technological and industrial capabilities only encouraged Beijing to experiment with additional reforms in the hopes of finally getting it right.